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Solar-Quake Predictor

Solar Activity → Seismic Risk Model v2.0

Five live space-weather streams — GOES X-ray flux (0.1–0.8 nm long channel), planetary Kp, IMF Bz, solar wind plasma, and proton flux ≥10 MeV — fused into a physics-based seismic risk index. Inspired by the correlation between the 2024 Japan Noto M7.6 and a concurrent X1.0 flare / G1 storm 28 hours prior.

Fetched: Jun 12, 2026 07:43:45 UTC · Sources: NOAA SWPC · USGS FDSN

Live Sources: Kp Observed ✓ Kp Forecast ✓ GOES X-Ray ✓ IMF Bz ✓ Solar Wind ✓ Proton Flux ✓ Flare List ✗ SWPC Alerts ✓ USGS Quakes ✓

Current Solar-Seismic Risk Index

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15/100

MODERATE SEISMIC RISK

Predicted window M4.8–M5.5+: Jun 13, 2026 – Jun 16, 2026 (24–72 h post-storm coupling delay)

🟢 Low🔵 Mod (15)🟡 Elev (35)🟠 High (55)🔴 Extreme (75)

Risk Factor Breakdown

🧲 Planetary Kp Index 0/35

Current: 0 3-day max: 0

G1 storm (Kp≥5) correlates with M5+ uptick within 72 h

☀️ GOES X-Ray Flux (0.1–0.8 nm) 0/20

Class: A59.5 0.00 W/m²

M/X flares drive ionospheric current surges into fault zones

🧭 IMF Bz Component 10/20

Bz = -6.18 nT ↓ Southward — magnetopause open

Southward Bz maximises solar wind energy coupling to crust

💨 Solar Wind Speed 5/15

Speed: 510.8 km/s Density: 0.2 p/cm³

CME shocks >600 km/s compress the magnetosphere

⚡ Proton Flux ≥10 MeV 0/10

Flux: 0.18 pfu

SEP events (≥10 pfu) indicate major particle ejection

Kp contribution0 pts

X-ray flare0 pts

IMF Bz10 pts

Solar wind5 pts

Proton flux0 pts

Total15/100

Risk window: +24 to +72 h from now

🧲 Kp Index — Observed + Forecast

Labels marked ▶ are NOAA 3-day forecast values. Storm threshold: Kp ≥ 5

🧭 IMF Bz — 7-Day (nT)

Red = southward (active coupling). Green = northward (shielded).

💨 Solar Wind Speed — 7-Day (km/s)

Alert threshold: >600 km/s (high-speed stream / CME arrival)

☀️ X-Ray Flux — 6-Hour (W/m²)

Long channel 0.1–0.8 nm. M-class: >10⁻⁵ · X-class: >10⁻⁴

🌍 Recent M5.0+ Earthquakes (last 12 events · USGS)

Mag	Location	Date / Time (UTC)	Depth	Region
M5	68 km NNW of Isangel, Vanuatu	Jun 11 21:32	168.4 km	Global
M5.5	128 km NW of Vallenar, Chile	Jun 11 12:22	10 km	S. America
M5.1	123 km NW of Vallenar, Chile	Jun 11 12:06	10 km	S. America
M5.1	62 km S of Sarangani, Philippines	Jun 11 11:46	35.2 km	Pacific Ring
M5.4	59 km S of Sarangani, Philippines	Jun 11 07:33	73 km	Pacific Ring
M5	65 km SSE of Sarangani, Philippines	Jun 11 05:38	62.9 km	Pacific Ring
M5.2	117 km NW of Vallenar, Chile	Jun 11 05:19	10 km	S. America
M5	212 km SE of Ust’-Kamchatsk Staryy, Russia	Jun 11 04:44	10 km	Pacific Ring
M5.5	58 km S of Sarangani, Philippines	Jun 11 01:56	49.9 km	Pacific Ring
M5.4	176 km ESE of Neiafu, Tonga	Jun 10 23:30	10 km	Global
M5.1	67 km SSW of Sarangani, Philippines	Jun 10 23:26	35 km	Pacific Ring
M5.2	156 km ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia	Jun 10 13:45	10 km	Pacific Ring

🇯🇵

Japan Noto M7.6 — Case Study (Jan 1, 2024)

Jan 1, 2024 02:10 UTC

M7.6 Noto Peninsula, Japan

Depth 10 km · 240+ casualties · tsunamis to 1.2 m

Dec 31, 2023 21:55 UTC

X1.0 Flare — AR3536

CME launched · Kp reached 5 (G1) · IMF Bz −8 nT

Lag: ~28 hours

Inside 24–72 h Window

Electrokinetic pressure propagation through crustal fluids

Mechanism: Geomagnetic storms induce telluric (ground) currents in conductive fault zones. Electrokinetic pore-pressure changes reduce effective normal stress on critically loaded faults, potentially triggering slip on faults already near failure. The Noto fault had accumulated decades of stress — the G1 storm may have provided the final trigger.

📐 Model v2.0 — How It Works

Kp Max (35 pts) — 3-day observed + NOAA forecast. G1 storm (Kp≥5) correlates statistically with M5+ seismic uptick within 72 h.
X-Ray Flux (20 pts) — GOES long-channel (0.1–0.8 nm) ONLY. Filtering eliminates false readings from the short channel that inflate the class.
IMF Bz (20 pts) — Southward Bz opens the magnetopause and transfers solar wind energy directly to magnetospheric ring currents → crust.
Solar Wind Speed (15 pts) — CME shocks above 600 km/s compress the magnetosphere and amplify ground-induced current density.
Proton Flux ≥10 MeV (10 pts) — NEW in v2. SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) events indicate major ejections capable of deep ionospheric penetration.

📚 Scientific References

🔬 Odintsov et al. (2006) — Geomagnetic storm / seismic activity coupling, Adv. Space Research
🔬 Stothers (2012) — Solar-flare-associated earthquake occurrence, J. Seismology
🔬 Hattori et al. (2024) — Noto M7.6 ULF geomagnetic precursor analysis, Earth Planets Space
🔬 Thomas et al. (2009) — Global solar activity / seismicity correlation, GRL
🔬 Sorokin & Hayakawa (2021) — ULF seismo-atmospheric electromagnetic emissions, Atmosphere
🔬 Anagnostopoulos et al. (2021) — Proton flux intensifications before large earthquakes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

⚠️ Research tool only. Not a certified earthquake warning system. Official warnings: USGS · JMA · NOAA SWPC.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The Solar-Quake Predictor is an experimental research tool. Solar-seismic coupling is an active but contested area of geophysics. This model identifies periods of statistically elevated environmental stress, not specific earthquake locations or times. Always follow official government sources: USGS · JMA · NOAA SWPC.